The moment when, 50 years ago, Neil Armstrong planted his foot on the surface of the Moon inspired awe, pride and wonder around the world. This newspaper argued that “man, from this day on, can go wheresoever in the universe his mind wills and his ingenuity contrives…to the planets, sooner rather than later, man is now certain to go.” But no. The Moon landing was an aberration, a goal achieved not as an end in itself but as a means of signalling America’s extraordinary capabilities. That point, once made, required no remaking. Only 571 people have been into orbit; and since 1972 no one has ventured much farther into space than Des Moines is from Chicago.
The next 50 years will look very different. Falling costs, new technologies, Chinese and Indian ambitions, and a new generation of entrepreneurs promise a bold era of space development. It will almost certainly involve tourism for the rich and better communications networks for all; in the long run it might involve mineral exploitation and even mass transportation. Space will become ever more like an extension of Earth—an arena for firms and private individuals, not just governments. But for this promise to be fulfilled the world needs to create a system of laws to govern the heavens—both in peacetime and, should it come to that, in war.
The development of space thus far has been focused on facilitating activity down below—mainly satellite communications for broadcasting and navigation. Now two things are changing. First, geopolitics is stoking a new push to send humans beyond the shallows of low-Earth orbit. China plans to land people on the Moon by 2035. President Donald Trump’s administration wants Americans to be back there by 2024. Falling costs make this showing off more affordable than before. Apollo cost hundreds of billions of dollars (in today’s money). Now tens of billions are the ticket price.
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It is a mistake to promote space as a romanticised Wild West, an anarchic frontier where humanity can throw off its fetters and rediscover its destiny. For space to fulfil its promise governance is required. At a time when the world cannot agree on rules for the terrestrial trade of steel bars and soybeans that may seem like a big ask. But without it the potential of all that lies beyond Earth will at best wait another 50 years to be fulfilled. At worst space could add to Earth’s problems. | 50年前,尼尔·阿姆斯特朗踏上月球表面,在全球激起了一片赞叹、自豪与好奇的情绪。本报曾报道:“从这一天开始,人类可以随心所欲地去往宇宙中任何自己力所能及的地方……迟早会到达那些一定能到达的星球。”但事实并非如此。登月行动是一次意外,它并非一个得到实现的目标,而是美国超凡实力的体现。之前有人提出过这一观点,现在也毋庸置疑。只有571个人进入过太空;自1972年以来,人类探索太空的高度不超过德梅因到芝加哥的距离。 未来50年将大不一样。成本降低、新技术兴起、中国和印度摩拳擦掌、新一代企业家成长起来,这些都预示着太空发展的大胆新时代。面向富人的旅游业和面向所有人的通信网络都会得到发展;从长期来看,采矿业甚至公共交通运输业也会受到影响。太空将更像是地球的延伸——成为公司与个人,而不仅仅是政府的活动空间。但是要将预期变为现实,全球还要建立一个法律体系来治理太空——不仅是在和平时期,在战争期间也是如此。 到目前为止,太空的开发的重点始终在于辅助地面活动——主要包括广播和导航领域的卫星通信。现在,两件事发生了改变。首先,地缘政治燃起了将人类送往低轨卫星之上的新动力。中国计划在2035年以前将人类送上月球。特朗普总统政府希望美国在2024年之前再次登月。成本的降低让这些目标更容易实现。“阿波罗”号飞船的成本高达数千亿美元(以现在的货币价值计算)。如今,票价仅为数百亿美元。 [ … ] 将太空宣传为浪漫的“狂野大西部”(没有秩序的边疆地带,人们可以放开手脚大胆建设)是错误的。如果要开发太空,治理必不可少。人类在钢筋和大豆等产品的地面交易规则上尚且无法达成一致,实现太空治理似乎更加强人所难。但是如果没有治理体系,地球以外一切空间的潜力至少还要再等50年才能被开发出来。最坏的情况是,太空将为地球增加新的难题。 |